The Duke contingent at BvB weigh in on a good win against Wake Forest and a tough loss against Florida State, and as per usual there is pessimism a plenty. The Tar Heels played only 20 minutes of good basketball this past week and they loose Dexter Strickland for the year, so how can the UNC contingent be feeling good? How will the Heels cope with a shorter rotation? What is going to happen with the log jam at the top of the ACC? Can we figure out what is going on inside the confusing rate maze that is Dick Vitale’s brain? Find out the answers from this week’s edition of Blue vs Blue.
The Duke Blue Devils are 16-3with wins over the ( currently) 5th,10th,19th and 20th ranked teams and tied for first in the ACC… and no fan who is paying attention is altogether happy.
Are we just spoiled? Are we overly critical? Do we expect too much?
The answer to all of these is probably yes. Years of winning ball have made your critically thinking Duke fan far more concerned about HOW Duke wins than THAT Duke wins, the latter being more or less a given with a program that rarely loses more than 6 games a year.I mean, I just saw my first Duke loss in Cameron in 2 years!
After a spectacular showing in 3 games in Maui, during which Duke seemed to noticeably improve game-to-game, the Blue Devils wandered out to Columbus and got pummeled in a game against OSU, the extremity of which pummeling many attributed to fatigue ( which I still believe is true). But the fact is, with perhaps the exception of the first half against Washington, this Duke team seems to be coming apart more than coming together or, more accurately said, playing apart instead of playing together. Yes, they are getting wins, but the impression one is left with that they are getting by. Here are some reasons why that might be.
Chemistry – Going in to the season, the biggest question facing Duke was how they would fill the leadership void left by Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. 17 games into the season, they are no closer to answering that.The truth is that NONE of the upperclassmen have ever possessed what one would describe as natural leadership skills, but, more dismaying is that none of them seem to have cultivated any during their tenure. Coach K’s constant referral to this team as “young”, is inaccurate and I think he knows it ( I mean, when most of your minutes come from 4 Juniors and a Senior, you just can’t legitimately claim that). What he means( but can’t say) is “immature”, which is just shocking for a Duke team with that many upperclassmen. If the 2010 National Championship team epitomized Coach K’s “fist” philosophy of the true gestalt nature of any successful team, ( a collective fist causing more damage than five individual fingers – a fitting metaphor for a West Point man), then this team is trying to beat opponents by poking them to death (and can’t decide which finger to use). There seems to be a fair amount of self-interest ( occasionally bordering on disinterest) and an overall lack of passion and effort from this team at times. The warrior spirit of Kyle and the irrepressible elan of Nolan have been replaced by, the fragile Andre Dawkins, the non-communicative Seth Curry, the cerebral but non-assertive Ryan Kelly, the hard-working but often unsure Miles Plumlee, and the taciturn Mason. The only player who seems to bring consistently strong intangible skills night in and night out is probably the least skilled basketball player of the bunch, Tyler Thornton. But he is smart and determined and plays his ass off on defense ( albeit often too aggressively in order to compensate for his lack of quickness) He precisely embodies what this team sorely lacks, and so will continue to get playing time. Talent we’ve got. In fact, I would argue that it’s mostly by out-talenting people that we’ve won as many games as we have, not by out-playing them. Look no further than the first 3 ACC games in which Duke gave up an average of 16 offensive rebounds a game if you need additional evidence of the Devils getting out-hustled. It’s consistently hard, team oriented play that we desperately need if we have any prayer of getting past the second round in March.
Defense – This entry could largely be encapsulated with “See Above”, since the kind of pressure man-to-man favored by Coach K is predicated on communication, which is itself a product of team chemistry. If defense is truly a barometer of chemistry then my previous paragraph is well supported ‘cause this may be the worst defensive Duke team in years.As it currently stands, Duke is dead last in the conference in FG% defense, 8th in 3pt FG Defense, and 11th in scoring defense. Going back to 2003-04, there is not a single season that Duke didn’t finish in the top 5 in at least one of those categories and only finished out of the top 5 in scoring defense once ( this was 2005-06 , where they finished 7th. For reference, this was J.J.’s and Shelden’s senior year, when they lost to LSU in the Sweet 16. Similarly, that was a high scoring group that could not keep up with opposing guards on the perimeter and had no one resembling a wing player on the roster). In my estimation, there is not a single player on this team that plays defense at a level that is consistently above average. Tyler Thornton is very aggressive, hard-nosed and plays very well off of the ball but simply doesn’t have the lateral agility to stay in front of most guards. Mason and Miles are very good shot blockers and pretty decent most of the time defending the low post. As for the rest, it’s fairly simple : they just can not keep the ball in front of them. The number of easy buckets this team gives up is just staggering. Duke perimeter defenders ( and Ryan Kellyy) are either not quick enough ( Seth, Tyler, Ryan) ,defensive minded enough ( Andre and Austin) , or practiced enough (Quin). Nor do they communicate well. By comparison, the championship team of 2010 wasn’t the quickest group in the world either but they 1) had height at all positions 2) were tough minded 3) had one outstanding and versatile defender in Lance Thomas and 4) ( the most important one in my opinion) they had leadership, they communicated, and they played defense as a team. So, yeah, I’m back to beating that drum again.
End of Games – Huh. That kind of sounds like “ End of Days” which would be apropos for this group come March if they don’t fix this. Duke was outscored in the last 7 minutes of these three games ( MSU 22-11, Michigan 25-16, Washington 28-16), the last 5 against UVA ( 10-4) and the last 3 against FSU ( 13-6) Those were each case studies in how NOT to close out a game : turnovers, bad shots taken early in the shot clock ( it’s enough to make me long for the oft maligned clock-sucking offense of yore), missed free-throws and poor defensive execution. This mostly stems from lack of experienced and confident leadership from the point guard spot. Seth and Austin and Tyler have not proven themselves worthy of leading the team in late game situations and Quin ( somewhat mysteriously) hasn’t gotten the chance. Tell me Duke fans, who do you absolutely trust with the ball if DUke is up 3 with 2 minutes to go ? Hmmm? Yeah, see, that’s a problem. That’s why , at the end of the UVA, GT and Clemson games, Duke resorted to handing the ball to Ryan Kelly 35 feet from the basket and praying he would get fouled. If handing it to a 6’11” guy at half-court at the end of a game is your best option for ensuring a win, you can bet there are some straws being grasped at. Someone ( a guard,preferably) needs to step up and be that guy. I’m still pushing for Quin Cook here ; he’s got the handle and seems to be a pretty decent decision maker as evidenced by his strong assist-to-turnover ratio. What is more likely the case is that this will be Austin’s role, and, until or unless he refines his decision making, that sword is going to cut us as often as it proves harmful to our opponents.
I realize that this could read like a lot of bashing on a team that’s won some pretty good games and I know that the slope separating honest appraisal from overt negativity can be a slippery one. This team had more question marks surrounding its makeup and potential than any Duke team in quite a while, and it has been at times enjoyable and interesting ( in addition to frustrating) thus far to see ( and not see ) answers bubbling to the surface. All of these issues are potentially fixable and no one ( hopefully) is at any risk of considering this a lost season. The success of this team will and should be measured in its growth as a team, not in wins and losses.
Even though Duke gutted out two wins, the Bart-and-Alex Blue Devil contingent at Blue vs Blue is not feeling particularly sunny in their outlook this week. Of course, a dark cloud is totally blotting out Zeke’s Carolina view, as UNC is still cleaning up the debris from the perfect storm they stumbled into in Tallahassee. Questions about team chemistry and mental toughness have both sides of the rivalry asking Vince Lombardi’s most famous question…
A week of uninspiring wins has Zeke, Bart and Alex debating what has Duke fading down the stretch of games, whether UNC’s vaunted bigs need to be hitting the offensive glass a bit more, and who, exactly, is the emotional leader for both teams?
In a rare week where both Duke and UNC lose, the guys talk through what went wrong for the Blue Devils in Columbus and whether Carolina’s narrow loss against Kentucky leaves Carolina feeling encouraged or discouraged.
I wasn’t especially hopeful that Duke would win last night, but I was especially hopeful that we’d see a hotly contested game between two great teams.
It may very well be that OSU is a better team period and could beat Duke under any circumstances, but there is no question in my mind that the following two things are true beyond a doubt : 1) Duke is not nearly as bad as they looked and 2) OSU is not nearly as good as they looked. This is all by way of saying that, while the loss itself may be attributable to such factors as Duke’s lack of ability to defend wing players, lack of organization and ball movement on offense, and the lack of clear on-court leadership, the extremity of the loss is very much due , in my opinion, to the result of the incredibly demanding November schedule that Duke has played. I would love to see OSU again on a neutral court when Duke hasn’t just played 6 games in 12 days and traveled halfway across the world to do it ( and, frankly, with Teddy Valentine locked up in a prison in Ankara for being the world’s shittiest referee).
Some musings…
Ryan Kelly as a matchup problem works both ways. He, of course, can be a headache to guard provided he is matched up against another true big, but, while he is by no means a bad defensive player (particularly around the rim) he is simply not quick enough to guard athletic wing players (and Andre isn’t tall enough). This leaves the door open for Hairston ( sadly, also not fleet of foot) and potentially Gbinije ( or Murphy?) to pick up some minutes. This is going to be a problem all year.
Andre has become something of a one-trick pony. He catches, he shoots. He has not evidenced any ability to create his own shot or knowledge of a most useful tool to guys who exclusively sit outside and bomb; the shot fake. His inconsistency is becoming quite consistent.
Seth had a bad game, which was really his first of the year, so he gets a bit of pass. Coach K was clearly disgusted with the lack of positive contributions from him, Kelly and Dawkins ( try a combined 3-11 from the floor with 4 turnovers for a trio that averages nearly 36 ppg) and essentially threw in the towel at the 14 minute mark of the second half going with the hardly vaunted lineup of Hairston, Cook, Gbinije, Mason and Austin for the last third of the game.
Every Duke fan watching this game couldn’t help but be reminded of the Georgetown game two years ago where the Hoyas shot 71% and steamrolled the Devils ( OSU shot 60 %) and, of course, the second half of the Arizona game in the tournament last year. These are games where our collective toughness was challenged and we responded, for lack of a better word, ineffectually. I’m not especially worried long term after this game. Weaknesses were certainly, exposed which is never a bad thing unless it happens to you in March. What can be corrected will be. No one thought this team was a top 5 team coming in to the year, and if Tuesday proved nothing else it proved that. We were perhaps a little bit spoiled with our early success and this game served as a nice reality check for Duke Nation.
Zeke, Bart and Alex talk about the very real problems the Heels have rebounding the ball and guarding the perimeter after their loss to UNLV, and spend some time discussing Duke’s big wins in Maui. We also preview a big week for both clubs in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge, followed by UNC vs Kentucky on Saturday, so, as Dr. Ray Arnold would say, “hold on to your butts”.
The Duke contingent at BvB weigh in on a good win against Wake Forest and a tough loss against Florida State, and as per usual there is pessimism a plenty. The Tar Heels played only 20 minutes of good basketball this past week and they loose Dexter Strickland for the year, so how can the UNC contingent be feeling good? How will the Heels cope with a shorter rotation? What is going to happen with the log jam at the top of the ACC? Can we figure out what is going on inside the confusing rate maze that is Dick Vitale’s brain? Find out the answers from this week’s edition of Blue vs Blue.
